Wednesday, April 25, 2007

Gartner says 80% will use Virtual World in 2011

One of the potentially hyped quotes from the Gartner Symposium/ITxpo 2007 I mentioned in the blog 2 hours ago was a bold statement:

“By the end of 2011, 80 percent of active Internet users (and Fortune 500 enterprises) will have a ’second life,’ but not necessarily in Second Life,” the company said on Wednesday in a statement released during the Gartner Symposium/ITxpo in San Francisco.

Let's hypothesize on that. Let's assume the economics for Second Life are a market average. There are now about 6 million Second Lifers, spending 1.5 million USD a day. According to Nielsen//NetRatings, there were about 330 million active Internet home users in March, 2007 (monitored in 10 countries).

330 Mi beats the current 6 Mi about 55 times, extrapolate that to the daily turnover and in 5 years we'll have a virtual market valued at 65 Mi. USD daily and an annual turnover of about 25 Billion dollars, not counting a rise in active internet users ;)

Let's assume Linden Labs will be the sole survivor. Now they're at 8 GB data traffic per second and 8,000 server. Let's do the math: In 2011 Linden Labs will have to deal with about 500 GB per second Data Traffic and 500.000 servers. I'd say.... Let's invest in ISP's and Serverfarms :)

Labels: , , , , ,


Blogger Aleister Kronos said...

VW Evangelist that I am, I still think this figure is barking. I understand, though, that their interpretation of a VW is rather wider than I would envisage!

IMHO, I don't see SL as being sole survivor - indeed, I think it is highly debateable whether SL will survive the "Big Boys" entering the arena - IBM (See 3pointD) and, if rumours are right, Google.

That said, by 2011 we should have a functioning 3D internet, in which the survival of any single company becomes moot - the network is the vWorld!

Thursday, April 26, 2007 10:06:00 AM  

Post a Comment

Links to this post:

Create a Link

<< Home