Thursday, June 07, 2007

New quarter bet watch

Second Life passes 7 million registered user-mark

In april I ran a short story on growth predictions for Second Life. It featured Reuben Steiger's (Millions of Us) predictions for 2007 and forecasted that in july 2007 there would be 3.5 million registered users.

At that time there were already 5.6 million users and I forecasted 7.5 by july 07. Well, surely forecasts are always easier to make 2 months in advance than a year, but right now Second Life passed the 7 million mark, so 7.5 still seems an achievable target.

I think the growthrate for SL will lose a bit of momentum in the next 3 months, but 10 million should be the goal for october 07

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Blogger Aleister Kronos said...

I seem to recall estimates given around the New Year, possibly from Linden Lab, of around 6 million by the end of June.

More recently, several builders have commented that, in dealing with RL companies, a figure of 13-15 million by year end have been thrown around.

I think these figures are achievable, but it must be said that rate of new accounts has slowed in the last month or 2. It is still steep, but in May (for example) SL increased by around 750K, whereas in April it had been closer to a million.

It is highly dependent on the promotion in RL. Recent adverse publicity in Netherlands and Germany will not have helped, while positive publicity in UK might be serving to drive up numbers.

Fundamentally, though, big change will come through new markets... and that really means Far East. It was never likely that China would sign up for SL, since it would almost certainly demand its own closed grid. However, Korea and Japan are still under-represented at the moment. I am sure a lot of work is going on to improve this situation.

The Indian sub-continent is another region absolutely ripe for Second Life. I would be interested to know what is happening wrt India, since I am not aware of any noticeable presence.

Thursday, June 07, 2007 9:47:00 AM  
Anonymous Dobre said...

You might be right actually. Its only for the past few weeks that we get business requests from Asia, it has not happened before. Mainly from Japan and India, but also btw Turkey and Spain now. Interesting....

Thursday, June 07, 2007 2:33:00 PM  
Blogger VeeJay Burns said...

If I take a look at the stats for this blog, Japan has been in the top 10 of visiting countries for 2 months now. India is 19th this month and Singapore 23rd....
They're out there :)

Thursday, June 07, 2007 6:32:00 PM  
Blogger VeeJay Burns said...

Last update: It's official now... I've received a pageview from China

Friday, June 08, 2007 8:50:00 AM  

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